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The world and whatʼs (maybe) next
A personal view of what might be in store around the globe in 2026
STRATEGY
Greg Campbell
Partner, Campbell Tickell
Greg Campbell
Partner, Campbell Tickell
Issue 82 | February 2026
2025 wasn’t an easy year to make sense of. Even the Financial Times’s fabled journalists only got 13 of their 20 predictions for the year ahead right – their lowest ever. We had more than our share of “What just happened?” moments. Should that deter us from trying to make sense of 2026 and what may be coming down the track? Of course not!
“It will be hard for Trump to retain his ‘trifecta’ in 2026, with control of the House of Representatives likely to switch to the Democrats, and even a (slim) chance of the Senate switching.”
US influence
In 2025 the big imponderable was Donald Trump and how he would operate in practice. In a sense though, all the signs were there: look at the Heritage Foundation’s 900 page ‘Project 2025’ blueprint for what the regime should do in Trump’s second term; and look at the people Trump lined up for key advisor roles – no sign of the ‘Washington insiders’ from his first term; rather a focus on MAGA people he felt he could trust.
This doesn’t mean it’s all gone swimmingly. One year on, Trump is historically unpopular. He has had major fallouts with former allies, and there is clear damage within the MAGA base, not least following the Epstein Files cover-up.
Nonetheless, recent events in Venezuela with the overthrow of President Maduro, and the economic shoring up of President Milei’s regime in Argentina, show the Monroe Doctrine remains alive in current US policy, with unwillingness to engage with Europe in supporting Ukraine. This combines with the sentiments expressed in the new US National Security Strategy, which paints Europe as the ‘bad guys’, while largely ignoring Russia, playing down China and not even mentioning North Korea. Topped off by a sustained push to take over Greenland, notwithstanding the possibility it could damage NATO irreparably, while delighting Putin.
This has probably passed many American voters by, as common disaffection with Trump focuses on the cost of living – price reduction ‘promises’ were a major focus of his 2024 election campaign – and the future of affordable healthcare. It will be hard for Trump to retain his ‘trifecta’ in 2026, with control of the House of Representatives likely to switch to the Democrats, and even a (slim) chance of the Senate switching. Lose either one, and Trump’s efforts to maintain his agenda in the second half of his term become much harder.
The wider world
Beyond the US, there are a series of elections to watch in 2026, with a number of intriguing contests. In ‘America’s backyard’, Colombia and Brazil host presidential elections. Bangladesh will see the first poll since Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League was overthrown, and in Israel a general election could see Netanyahu out of power, if the opposition can stay united. Meanwhile, Japanese PM Takaichi has significantly strengthened her position with the recent snap election.
In Europe, how will the populist right fare – will Viktor Orbán in Hungary be unseated after 15 years? And how much will Russia be able to influence the general elections in Sweden and Armenia?
It isn’t all about elections though. Several years of social media-fuelled ‘Gen Z protests’ have seen governments overthrown in Peru, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and Madagascar, and significant uprisings in Indonesia, the Philippines and most recently Iran. Who can say where may be next?
In Iran, it’s too early to assume the imminent fall of Ayatollah Khamenei and the Islamic Republic. But with the rial losing 40% of its value last year, the regime is under significant pressure, which has wider significance across the Middle East.
Sadly but inevitably, armed conflict continues in many parts of the world. There seems little prospect of the Russia-Ukraine war ending any time soon. And while the Israel-Hamas conflict is comparatively quiet for now, that may not last – depending partly on Israel’s upcoming general election. The Sudan civil war and the Congo conflict between DRC government and Rwanda-backed M23 forces are likely to continue.
“There are a series of elections to watch in 2026, with a number of intriguing contests.”
Closer to home
In the UK, the Labour government is struggling. A series of missteps from No.10, combined with the government apparently lacking overarching strategic vision, a succession of U-turns and feeble communications, mean that despite its huge parliamentary majority, Labour looks unlikely to retain power at the 2029 election. How votes shift within the Labour/Lib Dem/Greens left/centre left bloc will be critical.
Meanwhile we see Reform, the UK’s own populist right, riding high in the polls, bolstered by a series of Conservative defections. A critical problem for Farage though is that, if Reform is increasingly seen as a home for disaffected Tories, that could undermine them. Polls consistently show many Reform voters dislike the Tories, and vice versa. So, if the Conservatives shift further right to challenge Reform (at this point a merger of the parties appears unlikely), they could lose more southern ‘Blue Wall’ seats to the Lib Dems.
Amid this uncertainty, it makes absolute sense for many organisations, such as in the housing sector, to consider what may change and how they would engage with a Reform-led government. Reform administrations at local level are already a reality.
May’s local elections could see Labour receive a drubbing, especially in Wales and Scotland. It may be hard for Starmer to survive this year, especially following the recent Mandelson/Epstein debacle. Naturally, attention is turning to who might replace him. This isn’t easy: Labour has always been reticent about replacing leaders (outside general election defeats). Who might the key challenger be: Streeting? Rayner? Burnham (notwithstanding his recent knock-back by the National Executive)? Perhaps a mix and match partnership?
It would of course require around 80 Labour MPs to trigger a leadership contest, but on present polling, well over that number could lose their seats in 2029: what have they to lose if they believe change is needed now?
“Despite its huge parliamentary majority, Labour looks unlikely to retain power at the 2029 election. How votes shift within the Labour/Lib Dem/Greens left/centre left bloc will be critical.”
Economic impact
This article has principally focused on politics, but it’s crucial to stress how economic factors will impact politics around the globe. For instance:
- As US political turmoil drives financial interests internationally away from the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and towards gold, and especially if Trump forces US interests much lower, what are the policy implications?
- While ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) investment becomes less popular in the US than in UK and EU, will funds that would have invested in the US seek more stable investment environments abroad? (Spoiler – this is already happening!)
- Will UK interest rates reduce quickly enough to help government get UK public spending under better control?
- Given the state of Russia’s finances, how long can Putin maintain a wartime economy and what are the implications for their Ukraine war?
- How much longer will Iran’s leadership be able to resist addressing the economy’s structural problems and could this see the regime fall?
“Any serious organisation – public or private – aiming to maintain resilience will need to ramp up its risk and contingency planning.”
And lots more.
Where does this all leave us, domestically and internationally? It’s complicated. And any serious organisation – public or private – aiming to maintain resilience will need to ramp up its risk and contingency planning. This year will see a lot more changes, some anticipated, many unscripted.
This is an edited version of the original article at The world and what’s (maybe) next in 2026 - a personal view.
