Hope or hopeless?
The outlook for London housing delivery in 2024
GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT & REGENERATION
Image: Istock
James Owen
Land Director, Mount Anvil
James Owen
Land Director, Mount Anvil
Issue 70 | February 2024
2023 was a challenging year for London housing: residential-led planning applications in London are, depending on who you ask, down by anywhere from 60-80%; starts on-site were down 47% against the 10-year average, according to research consultancy Molior; and completions were 70% of the London Plan target. Speak to any land agent, ever the optimists, and even they will tell you the residential land market is ‘challenging’.
The reasons are well documented: regulatory uncertainty with the requirements on providing second staircases; unprecedented construction cost inflation; the end of 15 years of almost free money; and a planning system that’s overworked and undervalued. As Killian, our founder and CEO who’s been doing this since 1991, said to me: “There’s never been so many headwinds all at the same time – we must get better, quicker!”
“That £400 million would get you 1,300 affordable homes, if it wasn’t being spent on B&B bills... every year!”
Need for 100,000 homes annually
As an industry, we haven’t hit our annual London Plan delivery target of 52,000 homes for as long as I can remember – and Savills’ research reckons the need is actually closer to 100,000 homes a year. Whether or not you live or work in London, this is a major concern – there are 300,000-plus people on housing waiting lists and that’s increasing annually.
The temporary accommodation crisis has unfolded in front of our eyes, like a slow-motion car crash. According to research from London Councils, the London Boroughs will overspend on temporary accommodation by £150 million this financial year, versus a budget of £400 million. And that £400 million would get you 1,300 affordable homes, if it wasn’t being spent on B&B bills... every year!
The cost of not building enough housing
As an industry, we need to do a better job articulating the cost of not building enough affordable homes. The cost of damaged mental and physical health, thwarted life chances and diminished happiness and wellbeing.
I recently met with returning residents at one of our estate transformation projects in London, and spoke with a woman who had been living in a one-bedroom flat with her two children. Since moving into her new three-bedroom home, the aches and pains she suffered from sleeping on the sofa for more than five years have disappeared. And her children, now with space to do their homework, are more engaged and happy at school. Good quality housing is a prerequisite for good quality of life.
“When a public sector organisation with a keen focus on residents works with a partner that shares that focus, there’s the chance of a win-win, regardless of the headwinds.”
Need for speed
2024 needs to be a year of urgency when it comes to housing delivery. At Mount Anvil, we believe partnerships between public and private sector organisations are the best way to make it happen.
We’re working in close partnership with local authorities and registered housing providers to deliver 4,000 high-quality homes across London housing estates. And with our partners at the Greater London Authority, we look forward to continuing this trend.
How to get ‘win-wins’
For this to happen as we hope, London needs its senior leaders at councils and housing associations to continue to show courage and conviction as they focus on delivering for their residents. And then we, the industry, need to help them support us. As a senior partner at a major London firm said to me recently: “Reputation is more important than ever – the focus is on getting the right partner, building trust with stakeholders and doing what you say you’re going to do.”
When a public sector organisation with a keen focus on residents works with a partner that shares that focus, there’s the chance of a win-win, regardless of the headwinds.
For us, an owner-managed business working solely in central London public sector partnerships, that’s where we see the opportunity. Win-wins by ‘baking the biggest possible cake’ (i.e. drive the most valuable solution) and then giving away big slices to residents and communities.
